On 20 February 2026 the US Supreme Court ruled 6 to 3 that IEEPA does not authorise the President to impose tariffs. It did not end US tariffs on Chinese goods.
Four days later a 10 percent global surcharge took effect under a different statute, Section 122. Section 232 and Section 301 duties were untouched, and the bilateral truce was extended in September 2026 from 10 November 2026 to 10 January 2027. Meanwhile roughly US$166 billion collected from about 330,000 importers is moving through a refund process that has its own deadlines.
So the practical question for a buyer is no longer whether there are tariffs. It is which statute each line of the duty bill is charged under, and whether you can prove it either way. We are not a customs broker, but classification and documentation are now part of every quote we issue, and this is the framework we use.
What the Court Decided
The ruling was narrow in legal terms and enormous in administrative terms. IEEPA, the statute behind the so-called reciprocal tariffs, does not grant tariff authority, and clear congressional authorisation would be needed. The same day, a presidential action ended the affected tariff actions and stated explicitly that it did not affect duties imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act or Section 301 of the Trade Act.
That left importers in an unusual position: a tariff regime that is legally narrower but financially similar, spread across more statutes, each with its own scope, exclusions and stacking rules.
The Patchwork That Replaced It
- · Section 122: a balance-of-payments surcharge, reported as effective on 24 February 2026 at 10 percent and applied globally, four days after the ruling
- · Section 232: national-security tariffs on specific sectors, applied by product and metal content, so steel, aluminium and derivative lists hit hardware, tools and some appliance parts
- · Section 301: unfair-trade and forced-labour actions, still the largest single lever for China-origin goods, and generally not stacked with Section 232 on the same product
- · The bilateral truce: a suspension of certain escalation, extended to 10 January 2027, with a Board of Trade activated alongside it
Two Consequences That Matter More Than the List
- · Classification is now a pricing decision, because whether a product falls under Section 232, 301 or neither can move landed cost by double digits, and the difference often turns on material composition and end-use description rather than the product name
- · Stacking rules are where money is lost, because Section 301 forced-labour duties generally do not stack with Section 232 on the same product, but the entry has to be filed to reflect that, and errors here are rarely caught before liquidation
The Refund Queue in Numbers
Refunds are real, large and slower than the headlines suggest. The totals below come from trade counsel and trade press tracking the process rather than from a published CBP release, and should be read as directional.
- · IEEPA duties collected: roughly US$166 billion, paid by about 330,000 importers
- · Refund portal: CBP's CAPE, live from around April 2026, with refunds generally issued 60 to 90 days after a declaration is accepted
- · Accepted for processing by 29 June 2026: about US$104 billion
- · Accepted for processing by 2 October 2026: about US$136.6 billion
- · Phase-one capability: about US$11.4 billion, roughly 6.9 percent of IEEPA duties, covering liquidated entries in an initial tranche
The takeaway is that money is moving, but in tranches, and only for importers who filed. If you paid IEEPA duties and have not filed, the constraint is not the portal but the clock.
The Two Deadlines That Decide Whether You Get Paid
- · The protest window: importers should expect to file a protest within 180 days of entry liquidation, or use post-summary correction depending on the status of the entry, and trade counsel have been direct that statutory deadlines are running
- · The identity of the importer of record: the refund goes to the IOR that paid the duty, so if a forwarder, a marketplace or a third-party broker was the IOR on those entries, your claim is a contractual conversation with them rather than a CBP filing, and it should have been documented before the ruling
A related point worth checking now: the Court of International Trade consolidated refund litigation under a single judge, so the procedural path is centralised but not automatic. A favourable ruling does not file your claim for you.
How to Read Your Own Duty Bill in Five Steps
- · Pull the last 24 months of entry summaries and tag every duty line by statute as 232, 301, 122 or IEEPA
- · Isolate the IEEPA lines and match them to entry date, liquidation status and the IOR named on the entry
- · Confirm who the importer of record actually was on each entry, and if it was not your entity, escalate to that party in writing
- · Quantify exposure on the non-IEEPA lines using the correct stacking rule for each tariff code rather than a blended average
- · Re-price the Q1 2027 range on the statute-level costs you have just established, not on last year's landed cost
Why 10 January 2027 Is an Operations Date
The truce now runs to 10 January 2027, Chinese New Year falls on 6 February 2027, and factory wind-downs start well before it. Laid end to end, the arithmetic is unforgiving: a shipment that must clear US customs before the truce date has to be produced in December, which means materials ordered in November, which means the specification was agreed in October, which is the post-Canton Fair window when every other buyer is trying to book the same factory slots.
If your Q1 2027 plan depends on the current arrangement holding, the honest position is that you are planning against a date and not a policy. Build the shipment calendar backwards from 10 January and keep a second scenario costed for the case where it is not extended.
What We Now Do Differently for US-Bound Orders
Duty exposure is decided long before a container is loaded, so our work starts at the specification stage. The lines we consolidate for US-bound retailers and distributors are listed on our product overview.
- · Tariff classification is confirmed per SKU with material composition documented, because Section 232 exposure follows material rather than marketing category
- · Supplier quotes are requested with component-level breakdowns, so a duty change can be re-priced without re-quoting the whole order
- · Entry documentation is archived by shipment, including the commercial invoice, packing list and classification rationale, because a refund claim or a protest is only as good as the paper behind it
- · Consolidation is planned around the shipment calendar and not around the cheapest sailing, once a policy deadline is in play
If you are auditing two years of duty lines or rebuilding a Q1 2027 cost model, our sourcing desk can work from your entry data and return a statute-level cost breakdown alongside a supply plan. For how payment terms interact with that risk, see our guide to payment terms and what each one protects, and for the wider market picture our 2026 sourcing trends review covers how buyers have been shifting origin and order size.
FAQ
Are US tariffs on Chinese goods still in force after the ruling?
Yes. The ruling invalidated tariffs imposed under IEEPA only. Section 232 and Section 301 duties were unaffected, and a 10 percent surcharge reported as effective on 24 February 2026 was imposed under Section 122.
How do I claim an IEEPA refund?
Through CBP's CAPE portal, filing as the importer of record for the affected entries. Refunds are generally issued 60 to 90 days after a declaration is accepted, and the entry must be in the correct liquidation status.
What is the deadline for filing a protest?
Trade counsel point to a 180 day window from entry liquidation, or post-summary correction depending on the entry's status. These deadlines are statutory and are running now.
Can my forwarder claim the refund for me?
Only if the forwarder was the importer of record and passes the refund on contractually. The refund is issued to the IOR that paid the duty, which is why IOR identity should be documented before any claim is filed.
Which tariff replaced the IEEPA tariffs?
There is no single replacement. A Section 122 surcharge, expanded Section 232 sectoral duties and Section 301 actions now cover much of the same ground, with different scopes and different stacking rules.
When does the US-China tariff truce expire?
It was extended in September 2026 to 10 January 2027, moving the previous 10 November 2026 deadline by two months.
Does a Section 301 duty stack on top of a Section 232 duty?
Generally not on the same product, and Section 301 forced-labour tariffs are designed not to stack with Section 232, but the entry must be filed to reflect that, which is why a classification review is worth the cost.